Automated Betting: Analyzing Profitability Through 200 Verified Bets
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Chapter 1: Introduction to Automated Betting
In 2019, I subscribed to a Telegram channel featuring a bot that sends notifications when specific conditions in football matches are met. Recently, the bot's creator shared a YouTube video detailing the outcomes of 1,000 bets generated by these notifications, which left me quite intrigued. In this piece, I will delve into the historical betting data to evaluate whether automated betting can indeed yield profits.
To ensure a robust analysis, I will focus on 200 verified bets from Blogabet, allowing for reliable results. However, I will also reference the larger dataset of 1,000 bets when necessary to draw more comprehensive conclusions.
Section 1.1: Understanding the Bot's Functionality
The Telegram bot issues notifications for "Corners Race" betting after particular pre-match and live game conditions are met. Corners Race is a betting market where you wager on which team will reach a specified number of corners first. The pre-match criteria include:
- The favored team must be playing at home.
- The odds must be below 2 (indicating a 50% chance of winning).
For live matches, the conditions are as follows:
The bot only sends notifications during live games, specifically between the 65th and 85th minutes, under these circumstances:
- The favored team is either trailing or the score is tied.
- The favored team holds at least 55% ball possession.
- The favored team has more corners, shots, and dangerous attacks compared to the underdog.
These parameters help pinpoint strong teams that, despite being behind, are likely to intensify their efforts to score, which in turn can lead to more corners conceded by the opposing team. Notifications will be sent out once all conditions are satisfied, allowing you to either place a bet or disregard the alert based on your own criteria.
The first video titled "Betmarkets Review 2021 - Automated Sports Betting, Is It Profitable?" offers insights into automated betting strategies and their effectiveness.
Section 1.2: The Data Analysis Process
For my analysis, I considered 200 verified bets from Blogabet recorded between January and August 2019. While the Telegram bot has provided a total of 321 picks, only 200 relate to the Corners Race market. This analysis incorporates the odds, stake, and profit/loss for each bet, which can be found in the accompanying data table. Additionally, I have made the .csv file and all Python analysis available on my GitHub.
The second video, "Auto Value Betting Software Revealed!" explores how to identify value bets through automated processes.
Chapter 2: Monthly Performance Insights
The Corners Race market tends to offer high odds. This phenomenon arises not only from the low probabilities associated with a team achieving 5, 7, or 9 corners but also because these odds are often not as accurately calculated as those in more popular betting markets. Consequently, only a few betting platforms like Bet365 provide Corners Race options.
While elevated odds typically correlate with a lower win rate, this does not necessarily impede profitability. For instance, in April, despite a win rate of just 38.6%, the system still generated +7.39 units in profit, as the high odds compensated for the low success rate.
By the end of the seventh month, the overall balance from the 200 bets was positive, showing 51.07 units with a yield of 17.67%. Even when factoring in the 1,000 bets, the system remained in the green with 66.22 units and a yield of 6.22%. However, it's essential to note that Corners Race betting is not for everyone. The cumulative earnings and losses chart illustrates significant daily fluctuations.
This indicates that your bankroll can dramatically increase or decrease in a single day, necessitating the use of lower stakes to mitigate these effects. Additionally, one must be mentally prepared for potential losing streaks. The longest noted streak in this analysis occurred between July 7th (53.2 units) and July 14th (42.2 units), representing a week of losses.
Section 2.1: Performance Across Competitions
One significant advantage of the bot is its ability to send notifications regardless of league or team popularity, as long as the specified conditions are met. This allows you to bet without needing extensive knowledge of various leagues—only an informed analysis of the live match is necessary. Initially, the bot monitored leagues from 40 countries, but it now covers over 200, as detailed on its development website (TheBookieHunter).
It’s beneficial to gather some background information on the teams and leagues represented in the notifications to make informed betting decisions. Below is a summary table of competitions with more than ten samples, while those with fewer are categorized under "Rest of The World."
Overall, Corners Race betting appears to perform better within more popular leagues, with all exhibiting positive outcomes across the 200 bets analyzed.
Conclusion
The monthly results suggest that automated betting in the Corners Race market can be profitable, albeit with considerable daily fluctuations in bankroll due to high odds. The system may experience multiple losing streaks, so it's crucial to remain resilient and not give up when performance dips.
For further details on this analysis, please visit my GitHub. I am in the process of developing a similar bot to capitalize on live game opportunities. I'm also interested in suggestions for other betting markets worth exploring!