Reevaluating Climate Goals: Are 2°C and 1.5°C Too High?
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The Call for Change in Climate Goals
As representatives from various nations convene in Bonn, Germany, to finalize the initial assessment of the Paris climate agreement pledges, an extraordinary coalition of countries and researchers is raising concerns. They suggest that the original aim of capping global temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius, as well as the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, might be too lenient. On June 7, they will unveil their findings in a press conference, followed by discussions in Bonn the next day.
This newly formed coalition, known as the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) group, includes 20 nations, many of which are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, such as Iceland, Chile, Liberia, Vanuatu, and Senegal, as well as prominent scientists. They are calling for a reassessment of the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets based on the latest research concerning global ice loss.
The AMI group, which was established during COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, aims to highlight new findings regarding the worldwide effects of melting ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost. The coalition contends that the 2 degrees Celsius target is no longer justifiable; even the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark, which has received significant attention in recent years, might still be too high when considering the accumulating evidence.
Concerns About Sea-Level Rise
A significant issue raised by scientists and the AMI countries is the threat of irreversible ice loss and its dire implications for rising sea levels. Professor Chris Stokes, a glaciologist at Durham University, warns, “We are on the edge of a cliff.” The latest research indicates that the tipping point for irreversible ice loss from Antarctica is much lower than previously estimated. Stokes cautions that if we persist on our current path, we may trigger runaway feedback mechanisms in the coming decades, leading to a rapid rise in sea levels that far exceeds our most alarming predictions.
Carlos Fuller, a negotiator from Belize, supports this sentiment, asserting, “Given what we know today, 2 degrees Celsius should not even be considered. In fact, even 1.5 degrees Celsius might be too high.” This perspective aligns with a recent study published in Nature by Johan Rockström, Joyeeta Gupta, and their colleagues, which indicates that the world has already surpassed the safe climate boundary, defined as 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, resulting in significant harm to millions.
“This should be a wake-up call for every policymaker at this conference,” emphasizes Dr. James Kirkham, an Antarctic scientist involved with the AMI group. He notes the alarming rate of ice loss, stating that kilometers of ice have vanished within just a few years. The phrase ‘glacial pace’ has taken on a new, urgent meaning.
Izabella Koziell, Deputy Director of ICIMOD, a Himalayan organization based in Nepal, articulates the immediate consequences of ice melting. “The damage is occurring here and now; this isn't merely about future impacts. Melting glaciers and unpredictable snowfall disrupt water supplies, causing widespread flooding, heatwaves, droughts, and monsoon irregularities. This is the harsh reality faced by two billion people in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region today. We need to reduce emissions immediately, even as we prepare for future challenges.”
The Need for Urgent Action
Following the press conference and subsequent discussions, we can expect more media attention on these findings. Over the years, I've seen numerous reports, each more alarming than the last, and this one is no exception. Unfortunately, there exists a persistent sense of melancholy that this report, like its predecessors, may not elicit the urgent response it demands. If our home were ablaze, we would react without hesitation; similarly, we must treat our planet’s existential crisis with the utmost urgency.
The Ambition on Melting Ice group exemplifies the tenacity we must adopt—unwavering in their resolve, supporting their case with robust scientific evidence, and uniting nations with differing interests around the common goal of protecting our singular home: Earth.
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