# Quantum Computing: Transforming National Security and Beyond
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Challenges and Progress
Quantum computing has yet to prove its superiority at scale. Existing limitations in fidelity, which refers to the precision of quantum operations, are obstacles to widespread implementation. In contrast, classical computing continues to evolve with improvements in hardware, algorithms, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Nevertheless, momentum is building in the quantum field. The number of physical qubits—an essential measure of computational strength—has doubled approximately every one to two years since 2018. In 2023, venture capitalists poured in $1.2 billion, signaling strong confidence in the future of this technology. Governments, particularly in the U.S. and China, are also heavily investing, acknowledging the future importance of quantum computing for national security and economic development.
Quantum Value Creation and Market Phases
The quantum computing market is anticipated to evolve through three distinct phases:
- Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ): Up until 2030.
- Broad Quantum Advantage: 2030–2040.
- Full-Scale Fault Tolerance: Beyond 2040.
By 2040, quantum computing could generate significant economic value, estimated between $450 billion and $850 billion. However, delays in algorithm development and rapid advancements in classical computing, especially in AI, may affect this timeline.
Impact on Hardware and Software Providers
The landscape for quantum computing hardware and software is optimistic. Public sector backing, through grants and orders, is greatly supporting the industry. Major corporations are investing heavily in quantum capabilities, with over 100 active proof-of-concept initiatives identified among Fortune 500 firms. Moreover, the establishment of a quantum computing supply chain—covering controls, dilution fridges, lasers, and software—is enhancing revenue streams.
Error Correction: A Key to Advancement
Achieving effective qubit error correction is essential for unlocking the full potential of quantum computing. Notable strides have been made, with various companies and research entities developing innovative error-correcting methodologies.
Enterprise Impact and Industry Gains
While immediate benefits may be limited for most businesses, five sectors stand to gain significantly from error-corrected quantum computing:
- Defense and Space Sector: Improvements in secure communications and complex system simulations.
- Tech Companies: Early adoption of quantum and hybrid technologies could yield a substantial competitive edge.
- Chemicals and Agriculture: Enhanced molecular modeling may lead to breakthroughs in material science and crop protection.
- Pharmaceuticals: Accelerated drug discovery through faster modeling of complex molecular interactions.
- Finance: Improved data processing capabilities for risk assessment and portfolio management.
Shifting Focus: Key Considerations for Development
In addition to increasing qubit counts, development efforts should focus on:
- Clock Speed: Enhancing the speed of quantum computers to match or surpass classical systems.
- Data Loading: Creating efficient methods for loading data into quantum frameworks.
- Connectivity and Performance: Improving qubit connectivity to enhance algorithm execution speed and efficiency.
- Noise Mitigation: Utilizing error correction codes to address low fidelity issues.
- Return on Investment (ROI): Transitioning from a long-term ROI perspective to a focus on immediate practical applications.
Conclusion: The Dawn of a Quantum Computing Era
The world stands at the precipice of a quantum computing revolution. This technology, characterized by a winner-take-most dynamic, has the potential to transform various sectors, especially national security. As advancements continue, national security agencies must proactively collaborate with providers, build internal expertise, and adapt strategies to leverage the extraordinary capabilities of quantum computing.
Reference
Bobier, J., Langione, M., Naudet-Baulieu, C., Cui, Z., & Watanabe, E. (2024, July 18). The Long-Term Forecast for Quantum Computing Still Looks Bright. Boston Consulting Group.