Chapter 1: The Streaming Landscape

Ever since I could grasp the concept of spoken language, I have been captivated by television. Growing up in the 90s, my formative years were characterized by a reliance on live broadcasts and VCR recordings, as platforms like Netflix and Hulu were yet to come into existence.

It wasn't until the mid-2000s that Netflix began to emerge as a significant player. Fast forward fifteen years, and streaming services are now rivaling traditional cable and broadcast networks for viewers' attention.

I recall the era when ABC, NBC, Fox, and CBS dominated the television scene. In 1995, The WB and UPN made their entrance as smaller networks, which later merged in 2006 to form The CW. My first experience with a DVR came in 2008, leaving me lagging behind in the streaming revolution. Currently, my sole streaming subscription is Hulu, which means there are numerous original shows on Netflix and its competitors that I have yet to see.

As reported by Deadline (via Lynette Rice), the concern that broadcast networks once had about being overshadowed by trendier cable channels is now mirrored by cable networks' anxieties regarding streaming services. For instance, while ABC once had to contend with HBO for its primetime audience in 2003, HBO executives now have similar concerns about Netflix's growing influence.

What does this signify for the future of television?

This scenario opens up a variety of possibilities. We are navigating uncharted territory.

Section 1.1: Are Streaming Services Really on the Rise?

At first glance, it might seem that traditional broadcast and cable television could be on the verge of extinction or at least relegated to an outdated status.

Cable networks are reducing their original programming output, with The CW seemingly shifting its focus from scripted series to more cost-effective reality TV. Additionally, NBC is reportedly contemplating allocating its 10 PM Eastern/Pacific hour to local affiliates, following the model of Fox and The CW.

Moreover, several popular broadcast shows are transitioning to exclusive online platforms. For instance, ABC's longstanding hit, "Dancing with the Stars," moved to Disney+ in September 2022, and NBC's beloved soap opera, "Days Of Our Lives," made its way to Peacock during the same month.

However, I can't ignore a critical economic reality looming ahead. With a plethora of new streaming services cropping up, how long will it be before viewers tire of paying $7.99 monthly for each of the numerous streaming platforms to access specific shows?

If these streaming services become overly fragmented, won't they eventually need to consolidate to survive?

Subsection 1.1.1: The Financial Burden of Multiple Subscriptions

A casual examination of the streaming options available reveals a daunting list for viewers willing to invest in subscriptions: Netflix, Hulu, Philo, Fubo, Sling, DirecTV, YouTubeTV, RedBox, Crackle, IMDbTV, Paramount+, Discovery+, HBO Max, Disney+, Peacock, AMC+, and Amazon Prime Video, to name a few.

This list might not even cover all the services out there.

As more streaming platforms dive into original programming, they will likely crave exclusivity. But how will that exclusivity work if their subscription numbers dwindle?

Given the high production costs associated with original content, I suspect some services will soon find themselves compelled to merge or acquire one another to ensure their survival. Their viability may depend on such alliances.

For instance, Discovery+ and HBO Max, both under Warner Brothers, have announced plans to integrate their libraries, effectively doubling their subscriber base while creating a new hybrid brand to enhance customer loyalty.

Similarly, if Comcast completely divests its stake in Hulu, it stands to reason that The Walt Disney Company might merge the libraries of Hulu and Disney+ to streamline their subscriber bases. Conversely, if Comcast were to acquire Hulu outright, it could lead to a scenario where Hulu and Peacock are combined into a revamped service.

While showrunners relish the creative freedom that streaming contracts provide, the question remains: how long can they sustain this momentum before their options become too diluted, ultimately pricing themselves out of the market?

Chapter 2: The Need for Collaboration in Streaming

Streaming technology itself is unlikely to fade away. The adeptness with which younger generations, as well as older viewers, have embraced this format assures its longevity. However, the creative aspects of this business model remain uncertain.

While companies strive for control over their offerings, the profit margins will continue to be volatile if consumers feel overwhelmed by a barrage of costs.

I fully understand the impact of streaming services on the availability of original first-run TV shows on traditional networks. However, competition can be unpredictable. If newer TV shows are confined to fragmented niche platforms, the effects on advertiser revenue and syndication rights will be minimal.

Although genres like sports, news, and reality TV will likely maintain their presence on traditional networks, it's unclear how much further those genres can expand their audience. If Nielsen ratings primarily apply to those categories, how will advertisers determine which scripted shows deserve their backing?

Streaming platforms will eventually need to develop better and more transparent audience measurement methods. Failing to do so risks them undermining each other and themselves.

What lies ahead for streaming television is uncertain. However, unless these services explore options beyond their existing frameworks, they may find themselves outsmarted by competitors, as Rice aptly puts it, in the ultimate game of survival.

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